Public Prediction Oracle

A probability, a record,
a reason it moved.

Predictive is a calibrated forecasting engine for public events. Every prediction is dated, resolvable, and scored. When the world changes, the probabilities change — and so does the explanation.

Calibration

Scored in public

Every prediction resolves against reality. When we say 70%, it's right 70% of the time — or we say so.

Causality

Show the chain

Each probability comes with the inputs that moved it. Fed cut → mortgages ↓ → construction jobs ↓. Not a number in a vacuum.

Live

Updates when reality does

The world changes. Probabilities change with it. See the history of every shift and what caused it.